Potato, Bingham County, Idaho · 2025 crop
There is no potato futures market
Unlike cocoa, coffee or sugar, potatoes have no liquid exchange-traded contract, U.S. potato futures were delisted decades ago. ~70% of the crop moves on processor contracts (frozen, chip, dehydrated), ~25% fresh, ~5% seed. So this note is not a futures call. Its buyers are processors, crop insurers, ag lenders and table-market shippers, and public-market or credit teams assessing sector exposure.
Detected acreage down 8.6%, and a warm, dry August through tuber bulking skews size and quality lower. Local raw supply into the regional processing corridor tightens versus 2024.
Headline forecast & supply call
For a crop with no exchange, the deliverable is a signed read on raw-supply volume and quality into the processing corridor, benchmarked against the USDA number buyers plan against, issued at harvest, a full crop cycle before NASS publishes county detail. The call: acreage confirmed lower, yield flat-to-soft, and a quality watch from late-season heat.
Three-season county rollup (detected fields)
| Season | Fields | Area (ac) | Yield (cwt/ac) | Yield (t/ha) | Production (cwt) | YoY prod |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 151 | 71,260 | 421.8 | 47.28 | 30.06M | Not available |
| 2024 | 148 | 66,230 | 420.1 | 47.09 | 27.82M | −7.4% |
| 2025 (fcast) | 147 | 60,556 | ~415 | ~46.5 | ~25.1M | −9.8% |
Driver attribution, 2025 growing season
Scenario band, 2025 Bingham yield
Delta from last report (Jul pre-season)
| What | Move | Why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| Detected acreage | −6% → −8.6% | Final field detection confirmed processor contract cuts |
| Yield | ~425 → ~415 | Dry-August + heat signal added at bulking |
| Quality flag | , → Watch | Late-season heat raises sugar-end / size-defect risk |
Signal dashboard
Methodology, benchmark & accuracy
| Metric | Cropin (Bingham detected) | USDA (Idaho state) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 yield (cwt/ac) | 421.8 | ~435 | ~3% below state |
| 2024 yield (cwt/ac) | 420.1 | ~430 | ~2% below state |
| 2023→24 production change | −7.4% | −5.4% | Direction matches |
| 2024 season-avg price (ID) | Not available | $11.70/cwt (US) | Contract, not exchange |
- Field-boundary detection (164 unique polygons)
- NDVI / canopy vigour, monthly
- Water-stress & drought-severity class
- Daily temp, precip, GDD vs long-term normal
- Disease probabilities: late/early blight, scab, black scurf
- Per-field area & harvested yield history
No published Bingham-County ground truth exists (NASS county potato data is sparse/withheld), so absolute error is unverifiable at county level. The 2–3% gap to the Idaho state mean is consistent with a genuine county/sub-sample difference; the YoY change tracks USDA direction. Validate against processor delivery receipts or grower records before a buyer sizes on it.