Raw-supply & processing-quality outlook · Snake River Plain · russet + chip crop

Potato, Bingham County, Idaho · 2025 crop

Pre-harvest · 04 Sep 2025147 detected fields · 60,556 acUnits: cwt · cwt/ac

Prepared for Processing procurement · fry & chip Processing procurement teams

Processing-grade raw supply, Bingham 2025

~17.6M cwt

SUPPLY −10% YoY · QUALITY WATCH: sugar-ends & size · confidence: Medium-Low

Contracted acreage confirmed down 8.6% and a warm, dry August through bulking pulls tonnage and processing quality lower. Plan for a shortfall to contract and thin open-market cover.

County production~25.1M cwt

Processing (~70%)~17.6M cwt

Forecast yield~415 cwt/ac

vs 2024−1.2%

Read ~12 mo before NASS county data

Detected area

60,556 ac

−8.6% YoY

Sugar-end risk

Elevated

fry & chip colour

Size profile

Smaller

fry-length hit

Specific gravity

~1.080

adequate

Processing quality, what sets your contract value

Modelled from the season’s heat, moisture and GDD signals. The relevance column separates fry and chip processing lines, which weight these attributes differently.

Scroll horizontally to see every column. Use arrow keys when the table is focused.

Attribute	2025 read	Dir.	Relevance	Driver
Sugar ends / reducing sugars	Elevated risk	worse	Chip ▲▲ Fry ▲	Heat + stress at maturation
Tuber size / length	Skewing smaller	lower	Fry ▲▲ Chip ○	Dry August at peak bulking
Specific gravity / solids	Adequate (~1.080)	flat	Chip ▲▲ Fry ▲	GDD on track; late heat a drag
Storability / bruise	Watch	worse	Both ▲	Warm pulp temps into harvest
Defects (scab, black scurf)	Present	worse	Both ○	Disease probabilities in field data

Chip lines are most exposed to reducing sugars (chip colour) and tolerate smaller size; fry lines lose the length premium as size skews down. Sugar ends are the #1 reject cause for both.

Contract delivery & cover

Contracted supply is short and cover is thin

Northwest processors cut 2025 contract volumes 5–15% (some 40%+); Cropin detects Bingham acreage down 8.6% on a soft yield. Contracted lots will likely deliver at or below tonnage, and open-market cover is scarce because the shortfall is regional. Action: secure cover now, and schedule sugar-end-risk lots for immediate run rather than storage, waiting for harvest to confirm the gap means competing for the same thin spuds.

Season drivers & three-year rollup

August precipitation−6.7 mm

Dry through peak bulking

Aug–Sep temperature+1.6 / +2.1 °C

Above normal at maturation

NDVI, JuneBelow normal

Canopy lag; late-season EO incomplete

May precipitation+81 mm

Wet spring aided emergence

Scroll horizontally to see every column. Use arrow keys when the table is focused.

Season	Fields	Area (ac)	Yield (cwt/ac)	Production (cwt)	YoY
2023	151	71,260	421.8	30.06M	Not available
2024	148	66,230	420.1	27.82M	−7.4%
2025 (fcast)	147	60,556	~415	~25.1M	−9.8%

Methodology, benchmark & accuracy

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Metric	Cropin (Bingham)	USDA (Idaho)	Read
2023 yield	421.8	~435	~3% below state
2024 yield	420.1	~430	~2% below state
2023→24 production	−7.4%	−5.4%	Direction matches

Data inputs

Field-boundary detection (164 polygons)
NDVI / canopy vigour, monthly
Water-stress & drought class
Daily temp, precip, GDD vs normal
Disease probabilities
Per-field area & yield history

Accuracy read

Cropin’s county yield runs ~2–3% below the Idaho state mean (a plausible county/sub-sample gap) and the YoY change tracks USDA’s direction. Public county truth is unavailable.

Validate against your own books: your delivery receipts and lab grades are the ground truth, a one-season paid pilot proves Cropin’s tonnage and quality calls directly against your intake data.

Ship-ready as-is. A plant-catchment overlay narrows supply and quality to your named plant’s draw area (e.g. American Falls) on request.