Fresh category, availability & cost outlook · Idaho russet source region

Potato, Idaho source region · 2025 crop

Pre-harvest · 04 Sep 2025Bingham County read · 60,556 ac trackedFresh + processed exposure

Prepared for Category & sourcing · fresh + private label

Fresh potato category read, Idaho source, 2025

Supplied, but smaller pack

FRESH VOLUME adequate · SIZE skews small · COST soft near-term, watch regional tightening

Fresh-grade volume is available and raw prices remain soft, but a dry-August size skew means fewer large bakers and more bag-size potatoes, a SKU-mix issue, not a shortage. Processed-goods cost (fries, chips) is calm for now.

Fresh / table (~25%)~6.3M cwt

Size profileSmaller skew

Raw price env.Soft (~$10–12/cwt)

Appearance/gradeWatch (scab)

Early-warning, ~12 mo ahead of USDA county data

Fresh-grade supply

~6.3M cwt

adequate

Size / pack mix

Smaller

fewer large bakers

Near-term cost

Soft

supply ample nationally

Continuity risk

Low–Med

watch storability

Your fresh potato category: availability & pack mix

Roughly a quarter of the crop goes to the fresh/table channel. What matters to a grocer isn’t total tonnage but the size distribution behind your bag and count SKUs.

Scroll horizontally to see every column. Use arrow keys when the table is focused.

Pack / SKU type	2025 read	Dir.	Why
5 / 10 lb consumer bags (mediums)	Well supplied	good	Size skew favours bag-grade tubers
Large bakers / count cartons (10+ oz)	Shorter	tight	Dry August trimmed top-end size
Appearance / skin finish	Watch	softer	Scab & black scurf present in data
Year-round availability	Watch late-storage	flat	Warm harvest → storability risk

Action: skew fresh planograms and promos toward bag SKUs where supply is deep; secure large-baker count-cartons early, since the top size grade is the short one.

Cost & price outlook: fresh and processed

Two cost exposures for a grocer: the fresh potato you sell by the bag, and the fries and chips you buy from processors for private label and branded.

Fresh raw costSoft

Calm

National supply ample; Idaho grower prices low (~$10–12/cwt). Little near-term shelf-price pressure.

Fry / chip finished costStable

Stable

Processors cut contracts on surplus; finished-goods cost calm. Private-label fry cost not under pressure yet.

Early-warning triggerWatch

If widespread

If the Bingham size/yield softness repeats across the Snake River Plain, expect firmer fry cost in 6–9 months.

Honest read: 2025 is a buyer’s market for potatoes. The value here is early warning, not a cost-inflation alarm. Cropin flags the turn before it reaches your COGS.

Supply continuity & private-label risk

Concentration is the risk to manage, not this year’s volume

Idaho is ~32% of U.S. potatoes and your russet fresh + private-label fry supply leans on this one region. 2025 volume is fine, but the combination of −8.6% detected acreage, processor contract cuts, and storability risk from a warm finish is the kind of pattern that, if it widens, threatens late-season fresh availability and private-label fry continuity. Action: diversify source regions for large-baker SKUs and stress-test private-label fry contracts against a tighter 2026.

Source-region trend & methodology

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Season	Tracked area (ac)	Yield (cwt/ac)	Production (cwt)	YoY
2023	71,260	421.8	30.06M	Not available
2024	66,230	420.1	27.82M	−7.4%
2025 (fcast)	60,556	~415	~25.1M	−9.8%

Data inputs

Field-level crop detection & area
Canopy vigour (NDVI), monthly
Heat, moisture & growing-degree-days
Size / quality signals for pack-mix
Regional utilization split (fresh / processing / seed)

Accuracy read

Cropin’s source-region yield runs ~2–3% below the Idaho state mean and its YoY direction tracks USDA. Figures for 2025 are pre-harvest forecasts; national context uses USDA NASS.

Validate against your DC intake: your fresh receipts, size-grade splits and private-label fry invoices are the ground truth. A one-season pilot proves the availability, size-mix and cost-signal calls against your own data.

Ship-ready as-is. A banner/DC overlay maps this to your specific distribution centres and source-region contracts on request.