Potato, Bingham County, Idaho · 2025 crop
Contracted acreage confirmed down 8.6% and a warm, dry August through bulking pulls both tonnage and processing quality lower. Expect a shortfall to contract and thin open-market cover.
Supply by end-use channel
County production routed to the three demand channels. Each buyer keys on a different slice, processors on the 70%, shippers on the 25%, seed dealers on the 5%.
Quality outlook, the number that sets contract value
For processing potatoes, quality decides price as much as tonnage. These attributes are modelled from the season’s heat, moisture and growing-degree-day signals.
| Attribute | 2025 read | Direction | Driver | Who it hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry matter / specific gravity | Adequate (~1.080) | flat | GDD on track; late heat a slight drag | Fry & chip |
| Tuber size profile | Skewing smaller | lower | Dry August at peak bulking | Fry (length) · fresh (carton) |
| Sugar ends / reducing sugars | Elevated risk | worse | Heat + stress at maturation | Frozen-fry (fry colour) |
| Skin finish / defects | Watch | worse | Scab & black scurf present in data | Fresh / table |
| Storability / bruise | Watch | worse | Warm pulp temps into harvest | Processors (storage) |
Season drivers & three-year rollup
| Season | Fields | Area (ac) | Yield (cwt/ac) | Production (cwt) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 151 | 71,260 | 421.8 | 30.06M | Not available |
| 2024 | 148 | 66,230 | 420.1 | 27.82M | −7.4% |
| 2025 (fcast) | 147 | 60,556 | ~415 | ~25.1M | −9.8% |
What each buyer does with this
- Decision
- How much open-market to buy to cover contract shortfall; which lots to process first.
- Keys on
- Processing-grade tons · sugar-end risk · size profile.
- Action
- Pre-book cover early; schedule sugar-end-risk lots for immediate processing, not storage.
- Cadence
- Weekly through harvest.
- Decision
- Reserving and claims exposure across insured Bingham fields.
- Keys on
- Field-level yield-loss probability · peril attribution (heat / dry August).
- Action
- Flag high-loss-probability fields for reserves; use EO attribution to validate and fast-track claims.
- Cadence
- Event-driven + end-of-season.
- Decision
- Collateral value and repayment risk per borrower.
- Keys on
- Expected production × contract price, per operation.
- Action
- Re-grade risk where production trends short; watch borrowers exposed to contract cuts.
- Cadence
- Quarterly / at renewal.
- Decision
- Fresh-grade sourcing volume, timing and pack-out planning.
- Keys on
- Fresh-size profile · fresh-grade tons · harvest timing.
- Action
- Lock fresh supply early given the smaller-size skew; plan pack lines for the size mix.
- Cadence
- Weekly in season.
Contract-delivery & cover risk
Contracted supply is short and cover is thin
Northwest processors cut 2025 contract volumes 5–15% (some 40%+), and Cropin detects Bingham acreage down 8.6% on top of a soft yield. Contracted lots will likely deliver at or below contract tonnage, while open-market cover is scarce because the shortfall is regional, not field-specific. For a processor, the action is to secure cover now and prioritise sugar-end-risk lots for early run, waiting until harvest confirms the gap means competing for the same thin open-market spuds.
Methodology, benchmark & accuracy
| Metric | Cropin (Bingham) | USDA (Idaho state) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 yield (cwt/ac) | 421.8 | ~435 | ~3% below state |
| 2024 yield (cwt/ac) | 420.1 | ~430 | ~2% below state |
| 2023→24 production | −7.4% | −5.4% | Direction matches |
- Field-boundary detection (164 polygons)
- NDVI / canopy vigour, monthly
- Water-stress & drought class
- Daily temp, precip, GDD vs normal
- Disease probabilities (blight, scab, black scurf)
- Per-field area & yield history
Cropin’s county yield sits ~2–3% below the Idaho state mean, consistent with a genuine county/sub-sample difference, and the YoY change tracks USDA’s direction. Absolute county error can’t be scored against public data (NASS county potato figures are sparse/withheld).